I recently was thinking about the Mets prospect's in potential deals for other players and did an investigation on one prospect the Mets are very high on, Fernando Martinez.
The 21 year old prospect that the Mets generally feel is one of their best is not as stellar as everyone thinks. In his minor league career he has played 274 games hitting .282 with 30 homers and 132 RBI's. But what concerns me in the 274 games he has played he has struck out 226 times.
Now I know it's a stretch but I went back to some well known players and checked out their stats at his age. In 1996 at age 20 Alex Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 homers and 123 RBI's in 146 games. Jeter in his few years in the minors was a .308 hitter from age 18-21.
So after reviewing the stats not to mention his very sub par performance this year in the majors. I think it's time for Met fans to stop shouting from the roof tops that Fernando Martinez is the next messiah for the Mets, and realize that right now he's on pace to be a middle of the road everyday player. He may never live up to the young stars who have been hyped up by their team before him and may never become the incredible pro that we think he will become.
I have to more or less agree. Perhaps it's unfair to use Jeter and A-rod as comparison points. Jeter is one of the better players of the last ten years, and A-rod is one of the best players of all-time. There's an ocean of a difference between Alex Rodriguez and "middle of the road everyday player," and in that ocean you find players like Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler, etc.
ReplyDeleteYou have to consider his age, too. You give age a slight shoutout with the Jeter comparison, and indeed F-Mart is behind Jeter's development curve, but he DID pull an OPS of .877 in limited duty at the AAA level this year, at age 20. That's pretty impressive for a 20 year old.
Again, my issue is more that I think you're comparing him to the best players in baseball in order to argue that he'll be mediocre, when really you should compare him to the -better- players in baseball. For comparison, Jose Reyes at age 20 compiled a .689 OPS in AAA, and hadn't done better than .800 in anything higher than A. I'm just pulling him out of the pile at random for a comparison -- F-Mart is a bit different because he's supposed to have a higher power ceiling, of course.
Its fair to say Fernando has not lived up to the hype he generated when he was 17, but its not fair to compare him to guys like Jeter and A-Rod. A-Rod is one of baseball's all time freaks of nature, a historically awesome hitter, which is a lofty expectation for any minor leaguer, and unfair to use as a comparison. As for Jeter, he was in A-ball in his age 18 and 19 seasons, when he put up a good portion of those career numbers, while Fernando Martinez was in Double-A, two levels more advanced during that age range. And while Jeter was very good during this time, he was hardly exceptional, and assuming Fernando would have put up similar numbers had he been in A-Ball really isn't that much of a stretch.
ReplyDeleteI agree that it is a tough comparison but the way you hear him being talked about from Met fans is that he can be the next great player such as these guys. I think what i was trying to do was put a little perspective on this guy. Also in response to Meddler's comment do you think maybe the Mets have something to do with this and should have let the kid grow in the lower ranks rather than pushing him up the charts the way they did?
ReplyDeleteI agree that it is a bit of a steep comparison, but I think that he's been injured too much to REALLY develop. I guess you could say the injures are a bad sign, and that injuries keep potential stars shut away, and some never become the player they should have been...
ReplyDeleteI like this guy though, I think that he needs really good spring training, or (if not)another healthy half season in AAA. Anyone agree?
I think the idea of "rushing prospects" is a bit of a myth that evolves from the microscope that goes on guys who are rushed. And what I mean by that, is I don't think Fernando's shot at stardom would be that different if he'd been on a more age appropriate path. The one thing that's debatable is also the one thing I consider to be the big negative mark on Fernando's report card: his health. Could he have hurt himself by trying to adjust to a level of play that he just wasn't talented enough for? I don't know, it seems plausible, but its tough to prove.
ReplyDeleteAnd just a sneaking suspicion, it also seems plausible that all the hype around Fernando has helped his propensity to neglect plate discipline, which skill wise, is his major holdback. He seems perhaps even a bit over-confident in his ability to swing the bat, and he gets a little trigger happy. Even still, in two separate season, he showed a level of power that bordered on ridiculous considering his age (What he did in Triple-A in 2009 and in A-ball in 2006), and he's not a whiff machine, but he's also not a superior contact hitter and he really doesn't seem to have very advanced pitch selection.
I still think the positives outweigh the negatives and that he's a very good prospect, securely in the Top 50 prospects in the minors. He has very real power to all fields and also features good athleticism, enough so that he'd probably be slightly below average as a defensive CF, but well above average in a corner. He still needs time, and he has time, and first and foremost he has to stay healthy and get more than 500 PAs in a season. If that were to happen, a big breakout wouldn't surprise me at all.
Well lemme propose this to you if Fernando is in a package deal for lets say Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez to you part ways with him?
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