Gross Over-reaction

I don't know how many Mets fans I have talked to who have said that the season is over already because the team has gone 4-10 in May and 18-20 overall on the season.
This is what I say to them:
This is basically the same team that had a 14-9 record in April.  This team is capable of doing that again at anytime even without Carlos Beltran.

Speaking of Beltran, when he finally does get back, the Mets become a much better team.  Those who disagree that a team can benefit from the addition of one player can look at the example of Ike Davis; the Mets won 8 straight game after his call-up much accredited to the bat and glove of Ike himself.  Beltran gives the Mets an actual #3 hitter, great center fielder, and a smart baseball player.  But for now, he is injured and we are forced to play Angel Pagan in center. (Which isn't terrible... imagine if Gary Matthews Jr. was our CF... I shiver at the thought)

Along with Beltran's injury there have been a few others, which happens over the course of a 162 game schedule (plus spring training and post-season games).

There have also been bad starts by pitchers, which also happens over the course of a season.
I'm not saying that Ollie Perez was just a victim of a a few bad starts, because there is something clearly wrong with him; whether it mental or physical, I have no idea, but there is something very wrong.  Although he may not show it now, Ollie is capable of being a very good pitcher.  I remember in '07 and '08 when Ollie used to have 6 to 8 starts where he would look like an ace, 10-12 looking like a #3 or #4 starter, and the rest made it look like he was throwing soft toss.  Everyone wishes they could see that Ollie again...

John Maine on the other hand, seems much more likely to turn it around.  He has the stuff to be good, but he needs to pick up the velocity and just let it go.  It seems like he's holding back when he pitches, and tries not to injure himself.  And that is something you just can't do, you can't pitch scared.  But once he gets past the injury in his mind, he will get back to being the pitcher that he once was.

The Mets will find a way to replace Ollie Perez (for probably the rest of the year) and Jon Niese (most likely for only one or two starts).  But I hope that way will be Dillon Gee getting called up and Takahashi starting for them.  But from a long term stand point what happens after Niese comes back? do the Mets option Gee back to Buffalo?  What about Raul Valdes or Jenrry Mejia?
We will all find out in time, but for now, we Mets fans must stay patient and quit over-reacting over a few losses!

Our pitching thus far

So after 4 starts from our pitchers, three of them have been good. Santana threw a gem, Maine struggled, Niese threw good and Pelfrey threw great. This is great to see after such questions in the off season about the rotation.

Maine didn't look good out there, but we'll chalk it up to his first start and wait for the second to assess it. Really nothing else to say.

Niese had a great outing for his first start after surgery posting 3 ERs in 6 IP. People are saying he's going to be the most consistent pitcher behind Santana and I'd love to see him step up to that. Barajas speaks big of him and even compares his stuff to Cliff Lee (not as good as Lee's, but similar, etc.) The Marlin hitters apparently reacted to Niese's cutter positively after the game after being questioned about it.

Pelfrey threw great and his splitter just fell off the table to the Nationals. That pitch is fantastic and its great he has mastered it in a short amount of time. Though his control seemed off at times, he can definitely throw that for swings and misses.

Now the big moment is Oliver Perez. People were raving about Ollie in Spring Training, how he's throwing gas and being extremely effective but then he collapsed come game time. I'm curious about how this will play out if he's not effective...

If Santana, Pelfrey, and Niese are all effective and consistent, we can't just allow Maine and Perez to get rocked each outing. If 3/5 pitchers are working in a groove, those 2 other pitchers are going to get us loses and put us back in the division because if we keep the offense like what Franceour has been doing and what our bullpen has been doing, we're poised for a big year.

Spring Training update #1

The Mets as a team are now 6-2 outscoring their opponents 44-20. They seem to have great chemistry and work well together. They seem to be confident about this team and I don't know why we shouldn't either. Anything compared to last year will be progress. Sure, I'd love to win the NL East and make it deep into the playoffs. If we win the Wild Card and make it to the first round of the playoffs then I'd be content.

No one sees this team winning a World Series flat out this year. We're not the Red Sox, we're not the Yankees, and we're not the Phillies. I'd say, if everything goes right, we'd be a playoff team through the Wild Card. If we make these small steps forward in 2010, then 2011 could possibly be a success. By the way Spring Training is going, we have a very bright future ahead of us in Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Josh Thole, and Jon Niese (even though Mejia has stolen all the spotlight). Mejia is baffling batters and is perfect through 5.1 IP, F-Mart is hitting for power, Davis and Thole are red hot, and Niese (in my opinion) definitely penciled himself in for the 5th starter role after his last outing.

By the looks of everything, 2011 looks something like:

C Josh Thole

1B Ike Davis

2B Luis Castillo

SS Jose Reyes

3B David Wright

LF Jason Bay

CF Carlos Beltran

RF Fernando Martinez

1. Johan Santana

2. Mike Pelfrey

3. Jon Niese

4. Oliver Perez

5. Jenrry Mejia

As much as I love Jeff Francoeur, I see Mets management favoring Fernando Martinez over him for the RF job in 2011. What happens to Francoeur I do not know, but I wish we'd still have a spot for him.

Mejia is scheduled to pitch four innings in his next outing, clearly still being groomed as a starting pitcher (thank god).

Interesting Reads: Mejia, Chapman, Arroyo, Harang

Silvestricles of Caught Lookin' wonders whether or not the Reds are more inclined to move their big salary players after the Chapman signing.

Amit Badlani of NY Hot Corner wonders as well if the Mets can get Arroyo or Harang instead of settling with Pineiro now that Chapman is in Cincinnati.

Alex Geshwind of Fantasy Bullpen break down Mets top prospect RHP Jenrry Mejia and compares him to Mariner's Felix Hernandez.

That last one gets me so excited. Geshwind says that even though his stuff is not where Hernandez' was at age 20, his stuff is still off the charts and "skill set has ace written all over it." He also writes that Mejia will be the heir to Johan Santana. Even though this is probably true, I'd love a Santana-Mejia-Pelfrey-Holt-Niese rotation eventually. Talk about home grown talent... if all these pitchers (besides Santana) grow into what they're projected to be, Holt, who has "top of the rotation stuff," would be an amazing #4. Who knows if this is possible or even when this is possible.

Addressing the rotation

Over the course of this off season so far, no moves have been made to resolve the black void of a rotation behind staff ace Johan Santana. Little moves have been made to improve the bullpen. Having a bullpen of Igarashi, Escobar, Stokes, Parnell, Green, and K-Rod surely can be argued as a decently strong bullpen.

Now on the rotation.

The rotation in 2009 was just awful. Between the injuries, we had no-names fill in and attempt to give it their all, which wasn't a lot. What will the rotation be in 2010 and how will it be addressed this off season? The following are possibilities, starting with what we have and going on to what we can get through the free agent market.

Johan Santana

He is the clear staff ace and a natural leader. We all expect a lot from him in 2010, and as usual he'll deliver.

Mike Pelfrey

Huge potential, huge head case. In 2008, his first full season as a starter, he put up a 3.70 ERA which was supposed to be the first step to becoming a dominate pitcher as he was speculated on being. Predicting this step forward, he was placed in the #2 slot. This step forward actually became two steps backwards as he put up a 5.03 ERA this season. Yes, he did show signs of dominance and it was exciting. When he's on, he's definitely on. I don't want to see him traded because I can see his potential. He has fantastic stuff but I feel needs more experience and more maturity. I want to see him be a steady pitcher in 2010 so he can be a solid #3 and maybe eventually fill that #2 spot.

John Maine

Maine's first year as a Met was fantastic, putting up a 3.60 ERA in 2006. The following years he put up 3.91, 4.18, and then 4.43 in 2009. I always envisioned Maine as a great reliever due to the fact he cannot last long in games. Given we get a starter, I feel Maine would be the first one shipped from the rotation to the pen.

Oliver Perez

Where do I even begin? In his seven years in the bigs, he's only had three good seasons, posting a 3.50 ERA in 2002 with the Padres, 2.98 in 2004 with the Pirates and 3.56 in 2007 with the Mets. I like his stuff but he seems to not be all there. Omir Santos said in an interview that Perez talks to himself on the mound all the time. Sometimes Omir thinks he's talking to him so he goes up to the mound to see what's up, then is told that he wasn't talking to him. Due to Ollie's big contract, he'll most likely be in the rotation for 2010. He has to step it up though. I like that this off season he's been working really hard in rehab to get himself in shape and completely ready for 2010.

Jon Niese

I like Niese. He's a young kid who is clearly an organization favorite. Though is fastball is pedestrian, his is curveball is fantastic. I remember Chris Carlin once called him Captain Hook one postgame due to this. I'd love to see him in the #5 spot in 2010, so hopefully he has a successful recovery. His injury was awful to watch and just a huge downer to me. A new face with a lot of potential gets the spot start and is eventually hurt and needs season ending surgery. I can't wait to hear about his progress and how he's doing in Sprig Training in competition for that 5th starter spot.

Now for a free agent...

Ben Sheets

Ben Sheets excites me. He'd be a great #2 behind Santana. When healthy, he's basically a Santana carbon-copy and an ace. I'd completely be all for Sheets, he's asking for $12 mil for one year deal and I might give it to him now. It might be pricey due to his injury given history, but at this point in time I'd be for it. Erik Bedard is another one to think of, but I like Sheets as our best opportunity. I feel he has the better arm and can give us more if healthy.

The 2010 rotation would look like Santana-Sheets-Pelfrey-Perez-Niese. If Sheets is healthy and his stuff is on, it can rival that of Santana's. The Santana/Sheets 1-2 is deadly and powerful. Pelfrey and Perez, given maturity and experience, would give you solid starts. I like Niese as our #5 because I feel Maine would be awesome in the bullpen. Niese can work out any kinks he has and show us what he's all about.

An ace from the farm

Every team (mostly) has a young farmhand who has tremendous potential on the mound. They are brought up from the minors and either dominate MLB hitters or have shown great flashes of greatness in doing so.

The Yankees have Phil Hughes, Red Sox have Clay Buchholz, Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, A's have Andrew Bailey, Phillies have JA Happ, Tigers have Rick Porcello, and the Braves have Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.

Who will the Mets get? Eventually a pitcher will arise from the depths of the Mets' farm. Who will it be? Will it be the praised prospects such as Holt or Mejia? Will it be Niese, Moviel, Familia, or Urbina who step up?

Or, can it be Pelfrey? Having a few seasons under his belt and still not showing signs of dominance, I doubt it. Someone in the farm has to be one of these pitchers. At least one of the pitchers in the Mets farm is destined to fill these shoes. Who will it be?

Thoughts?

Jon Niese

I enjoyed watching Niese pitch (the two games he was recalled for after his not so good run in the beginning of the season) until he got hurt. I'd like to see him in the rotation for 2010. If he doesn't work out, he doesn't work out. Worst that can happen is that you send him back to the minors. On the upside, he gets serious MLB playing time in a hopefully healthy team that can back him up offensively and defensively.

If Niese pans out to be a solid pitcher, that would go wonderful with Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia in a couple of years. If Holt and Mejia are major league ready and able to prove to us the reason why they're our best pitching prospects, that could get dangerous. Assuming Pelfrey finds his groove, that is one dirty rotation. But still, that is years away from happening.

Prospects excite me. So much talent yet a lot of it is just hype. The majors and the minors are day and night so you really don't have any idea. I'm just hoping for the best. Us Mets fans can use a little exciting news to look forward to, right?