Gross Over-reaction

I don't know how many Mets fans I have talked to who have said that the season is over already because the team has gone 4-10 in May and 18-20 overall on the season.
This is what I say to them:
This is basically the same team that had a 14-9 record in April.  This team is capable of doing that again at anytime even without Carlos Beltran.

Speaking of Beltran, when he finally does get back, the Mets become a much better team.  Those who disagree that a team can benefit from the addition of one player can look at the example of Ike Davis; the Mets won 8 straight game after his call-up much accredited to the bat and glove of Ike himself.  Beltran gives the Mets an actual #3 hitter, great center fielder, and a smart baseball player.  But for now, he is injured and we are forced to play Angel Pagan in center. (Which isn't terrible... imagine if Gary Matthews Jr. was our CF... I shiver at the thought)

Along with Beltran's injury there have been a few others, which happens over the course of a 162 game schedule (plus spring training and post-season games).

There have also been bad starts by pitchers, which also happens over the course of a season.
I'm not saying that Ollie Perez was just a victim of a a few bad starts, because there is something clearly wrong with him; whether it mental or physical, I have no idea, but there is something very wrong.  Although he may not show it now, Ollie is capable of being a very good pitcher.  I remember in '07 and '08 when Ollie used to have 6 to 8 starts where he would look like an ace, 10-12 looking like a #3 or #4 starter, and the rest made it look like he was throwing soft toss.  Everyone wishes they could see that Ollie again...

John Maine on the other hand, seems much more likely to turn it around.  He has the stuff to be good, but he needs to pick up the velocity and just let it go.  It seems like he's holding back when he pitches, and tries not to injure himself.  And that is something you just can't do, you can't pitch scared.  But once he gets past the injury in his mind, he will get back to being the pitcher that he once was.

The Mets will find a way to replace Ollie Perez (for probably the rest of the year) and Jon Niese (most likely for only one or two starts).  But I hope that way will be Dillon Gee getting called up and Takahashi starting for them.  But from a long term stand point what happens after Niese comes back? do the Mets option Gee back to Buffalo?  What about Raul Valdes or Jenrry Mejia?
We will all find out in time, but for now, we Mets fans must stay patient and quit over-reacting over a few losses!

Our pitching thus far

So after 4 starts from our pitchers, three of them have been good. Santana threw a gem, Maine struggled, Niese threw good and Pelfrey threw great. This is great to see after such questions in the off season about the rotation.

Maine didn't look good out there, but we'll chalk it up to his first start and wait for the second to assess it. Really nothing else to say.

Niese had a great outing for his first start after surgery posting 3 ERs in 6 IP. People are saying he's going to be the most consistent pitcher behind Santana and I'd love to see him step up to that. Barajas speaks big of him and even compares his stuff to Cliff Lee (not as good as Lee's, but similar, etc.) The Marlin hitters apparently reacted to Niese's cutter positively after the game after being questioned about it.

Pelfrey threw great and his splitter just fell off the table to the Nationals. That pitch is fantastic and its great he has mastered it in a short amount of time. Though his control seemed off at times, he can definitely throw that for swings and misses.

Now the big moment is Oliver Perez. People were raving about Ollie in Spring Training, how he's throwing gas and being extremely effective but then he collapsed come game time. I'm curious about how this will play out if he's not effective...

If Santana, Pelfrey, and Niese are all effective and consistent, we can't just allow Maine and Perez to get rocked each outing. If 3/5 pitchers are working in a groove, those 2 other pitchers are going to get us loses and put us back in the division because if we keep the offense like what Franceour has been doing and what our bullpen has been doing, we're poised for a big year.

Johan on Pelfrey's bright future

John Harper of the Daily News talks to Johan Santana who gives his feelings about the pitching staff behind him, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. It's a very optimistic view and gives some insight on how excited and confident he is for the 2010 season.

On Pelfrey, he says:

"He's got the stuff to be great. Man, if I had his stuff, oh, my God. That sinker that he throws at 95 [mph], it's unbelievable. It's a matter of consistency and being more mature, and I really believe he;s a more mature pitcher after feeling like he had to step in for me (late) last season."

I love this. Johan Santana, the ace of staff and two time Cy Young winner, is jealous of Mike Pelfrey's stuff. This says a lot for the kid and a lot about the mentality this team has. If Santana thinks Pelfrey "can be great," then I'm pretty sure he has a lot more insight on pitchers and what they'll develop into than any of us.

A lot of people are extremely rough on Pelfrey and I don't know why. Sure, I was frustrated with him last season but I think it should go unnoticed due to everything that happened. The team's core player and even back up player flat out collapsed. How could anyone succeed with such a blemish? With all the papers writing about it, news, etc. Hell, Sports Center even had their very own Not Top 10 just for the 2009 Mets. How could people tune that out and not let it get to their heads?

Santana also labels Perez as "hungry" and Maine "pain-free." The players seem very excited about this season, so why shouldn't we? It's so repetitive on twitter and these sites saying how this season is going to be such a waste and Omar sucks and I can't wait until 2011. You're hating on the team now but if we win or go deep you're going to praise them. Let's just start baseball and quit complaining. We have so many key players to win us a championship, so let's do it.

Omar's Plan

So, Omar obviously has a plan. He knows what scrutiny he's under coming off these last few seasons, so just because these pitchers seem to be drifting away, there is obviously a reason.

I remember what Omar said when everyone mid-09 wanted to know what he's going to do with the core players that are hurt and who he is trying to bring it. He responded that he's not going to acquire a short stop because he's not going to get one as good as Reyes is. I believe that that thinking is being transferred over to this offseason's pitching.

Omar has some serious confidence in Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez. If he feels that they're going to be on in 2010, he's not going to bring in a starter who he feels will be worse than what he has.

Everyone is saying that Omar is letting all these free agents slip away. That is probably not the case. Omar clearly is working on a trade to bring over a pitcher to further strengthen our rotation. He would've obviously not allowed Sheets to slip if he didn't have a plan. Lackey slipped, but nobody saw the Sox stepping in. Everyone else didn't really catch our attention. Come on... Joel Pineiro? Jon Garland? Why spend money on Garland, who gives you a 4 ERA guaranteed, when its possible Pelfrey, Maine and Perez might give you more? Everyone wanted to take a shot on Sheets, who is also a gamble, so why not gamble on your three young pitchers?

Mostly everybody wanted Sheets. Sure, he can be electric but he is also a gamble. If you think about it, so are Pelfrey, Maine and Perez. He clearly doesn't wanna spend money on lightning in a bottle when he has three young pitchers who can be those guys. We all know that when Pelfrey, Maine and Perez are on, they're ON. Instead of spending $10 mil on a pitcher who could be dominant, he's relying on those who are in the rotation who could be dominate as well.

In regard to Lackey, he let that one slip. He all know we had no shot at Halladay, as well. No Mets fan wanted Pineiro, so we can't complain about that. The only pitcher left that is worth the money is Chien-Ming Wang.

Wang could be a great top of the rotation starter that we're looking for and I think Omar should seriously consider his talent in the Mets rotation. This might be our last hope for signing a free agent top-tier pitcher.

The Mets Have Issues.

Hello, everyone. This is my first post since joining the CheMETSry team. You may know me from Twitter as @PessimisticMet. At CheMetsry, not only are we diehard Mets fans, but we also all are Jets enthusiasts. Watching the Jets has only re-affirmed my deeply rooted Mets pessimism. By watching the Jets remarkable play-off run, I realized: this team is not only youthful, but they have a distinct plan for the future and have executed that plan. What am I talking about? I’m talking about the complete lack of direction of the Mets for the future, and also the present.

In light of the recent awful handling of the Beltran situation, it had me thinking: Who are the New York Mets? What is our identity? And more importantly what do we hope to accomplish in the future?

I look at this roster and my pessimism is reaffirmed. I just have little confidence going forward into this season. I will give you my qualms and issues about this team. Will the doubts I share be a little exaggerated—maybe. However my aim is to shed some light on the issues facing this team.

The Age Factor: Folks, the Mets are not getting any younger. David Wright and Jose Reyes are no longer their former 22 year-old selves. Now, at 28 and 27, they are by no means old. However they have entered the beginning of their “prime” years. Jose must prove that he can string together a couple of years without missing a lot of game time. We all know he has the talent but he should be able to do more. Wright has been great, but with the disappointment that was last year, it’s time for him to get back into MVP form. Can they return to their former MVP form? Can they stay healthy? Can Wright find a stylish way to pull off his Martian helmet?

Luis Castillo is an eye-popping 35 years old. The single hitting champion has lost multiple steps that have not only affected his speed, but his range defensively. It also doesn’t help when he can’t catch routine pop-ups to end games against your cross-town rival. It’s time the Mets get rid of Castillo. Did he have a good season last year? Well, yeah. But at 35, a guy who relies so heavily on his speed for his slap hitting approach will continue to lose speed. He is sub-par defensively and its time we got a fresher set of legs out there whose career slugging percentage is actually above .340. Let me put something into perspective for you. Luis Castillo had 12 doubles last year. 12. Orlando Hudson had triple the amount. Can Luis Castillo play like he did last year? Maybe, but I just don’t see it happening. Adam Kennedy is available…all I’m saying.

It’s time we realize that the injury to Carlos Beltran might keep him out of many games this year. As CheMETSry reported earlier, Beltran’s injury is potentially career threatening. At 33 years of age Beltran is no longer a kid…the end is potentially near. When Carlos is healthy he is an elite centerfielder—no questions asked. A gold glover who can hit 40 home runs and is the most successful base stealer in MLB HISTORY…what more can you ask for. It pains me to say it, but those days might be behind him. If this injury keeps him out this year Pagan may have to take on a role that could prove to be too big for him. Gary Matthews is also not a solution. Perhaps the tandem of them both could be effective. However, both of them combined will be nowhere near close to a healthy Carlos Beltran: not close at all. That worries me.

Here’s something that concerns me deeply. Mets fans/bloggers were very torn up about acquiring a power bat this offseason, and I mean Bay is certainly a power bat. However, with the loss of Beltran (who I believe will miss a significant amount of time) and the inability to get Molina (who I believe would’ve added some much needed pop to the order) is Bay enough? NO! Pagan, though I admire him as a player, is not Carlos Beltran, and Santos is NOT Bengie Molina. Just because you have 4 catchers doesn’t mean they are all going to produce. IF Beltran is out for a long time that makes the Daniel Murphy situation a whole lot more interesting. If we lose that power from center field, Beltran’s replacement, Santos/Blanco/Thole/Coste, and Murphy most likely will not make up for it.

Jason Bay is 32, getting older by the minute…but consistent. I will not judge him until I see him play. Looks like a solid pick-up…I question his defensive capabilities and his speed…but let’s let him play first.

Did you know Franouer is 26? Him, Murphy, and Santos are all relatively young. I love Francouer’s grit, attitude, and defense. What I don’t love is his OBP. Murphy has potential…but I just don’t know who he is. Is he a platoon player, or is he a legitimate major league first baseman? We’ll have to wait and see on him but I am not very convinced he can hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 RBI.

Where are the Mets going? I really can’t tell you. But for now we look like a team that has no backbone, no fire and really looks like they don’t want to win. We continue to seek out short-term stopgaps and continually overpay for them.

The pitching rotation is a complete mess. Johan Santana is worth every penny. I will give the Mets credit, that was one of the best trades I have ever seen. Besides him there are some serious issues. Mike Pelfrey is not a number 2 starter and should not be. It’s not a knock on him as a person, he’s just not a legitimate number two starter on a potential “play-off caliber” team. A 3.72 ERA was promising two years ago, a 5.03 this year was not. Maine has showed a lot of promise. Stay healthy. Perez, a guy who I should be the most pessimistic about, is actually the guy I am most hopeful for. This guy could be a dominant pitcher. His stuff, when on, is absolutely nasty and borderline unhittable. If his workouts are going well and he can limit his wildness and walks—watch out. I hope he can pull it together, and for the millions he’s receiving…he better.

This is the worst feeling I’ve ever had going into a season. Let’s see how it goes.

Addressing the rotation

Over the course of this off season so far, no moves have been made to resolve the black void of a rotation behind staff ace Johan Santana. Little moves have been made to improve the bullpen. Having a bullpen of Igarashi, Escobar, Stokes, Parnell, Green, and K-Rod surely can be argued as a decently strong bullpen.

Now on the rotation.

The rotation in 2009 was just awful. Between the injuries, we had no-names fill in and attempt to give it their all, which wasn't a lot. What will the rotation be in 2010 and how will it be addressed this off season? The following are possibilities, starting with what we have and going on to what we can get through the free agent market.

Johan Santana

He is the clear staff ace and a natural leader. We all expect a lot from him in 2010, and as usual he'll deliver.

Mike Pelfrey

Huge potential, huge head case. In 2008, his first full season as a starter, he put up a 3.70 ERA which was supposed to be the first step to becoming a dominate pitcher as he was speculated on being. Predicting this step forward, he was placed in the #2 slot. This step forward actually became two steps backwards as he put up a 5.03 ERA this season. Yes, he did show signs of dominance and it was exciting. When he's on, he's definitely on. I don't want to see him traded because I can see his potential. He has fantastic stuff but I feel needs more experience and more maturity. I want to see him be a steady pitcher in 2010 so he can be a solid #3 and maybe eventually fill that #2 spot.

John Maine

Maine's first year as a Met was fantastic, putting up a 3.60 ERA in 2006. The following years he put up 3.91, 4.18, and then 4.43 in 2009. I always envisioned Maine as a great reliever due to the fact he cannot last long in games. Given we get a starter, I feel Maine would be the first one shipped from the rotation to the pen.

Oliver Perez

Where do I even begin? In his seven years in the bigs, he's only had three good seasons, posting a 3.50 ERA in 2002 with the Padres, 2.98 in 2004 with the Pirates and 3.56 in 2007 with the Mets. I like his stuff but he seems to not be all there. Omir Santos said in an interview that Perez talks to himself on the mound all the time. Sometimes Omir thinks he's talking to him so he goes up to the mound to see what's up, then is told that he wasn't talking to him. Due to Ollie's big contract, he'll most likely be in the rotation for 2010. He has to step it up though. I like that this off season he's been working really hard in rehab to get himself in shape and completely ready for 2010.

Jon Niese

I like Niese. He's a young kid who is clearly an organization favorite. Though is fastball is pedestrian, his is curveball is fantastic. I remember Chris Carlin once called him Captain Hook one postgame due to this. I'd love to see him in the #5 spot in 2010, so hopefully he has a successful recovery. His injury was awful to watch and just a huge downer to me. A new face with a lot of potential gets the spot start and is eventually hurt and needs season ending surgery. I can't wait to hear about his progress and how he's doing in Sprig Training in competition for that 5th starter spot.

Now for a free agent...

Ben Sheets

Ben Sheets excites me. He'd be a great #2 behind Santana. When healthy, he's basically a Santana carbon-copy and an ace. I'd completely be all for Sheets, he's asking for $12 mil for one year deal and I might give it to him now. It might be pricey due to his injury given history, but at this point in time I'd be for it. Erik Bedard is another one to think of, but I like Sheets as our best opportunity. I feel he has the better arm and can give us more if healthy.

The 2010 rotation would look like Santana-Sheets-Pelfrey-Perez-Niese. If Sheets is healthy and his stuff is on, it can rival that of Santana's. The Santana/Sheets 1-2 is deadly and powerful. Pelfrey and Perez, given maturity and experience, would give you solid starts. I like Niese as our #5 because I feel Maine would be awesome in the bullpen. Niese can work out any kinks he has and show us what he's all about.